Bitcoin pushed toward a four-week high, breaking above a closely watched technical level as digital assets began to align with gains already visible in equities and precious metals. The move reflects a broader shift in cross-asset positioning rather than a crypto-specific catalyst, a pattern that YourDailyAnalysis has consistently identified during periods of macro recalibration.
The largest cryptocurrency rose roughly 3% on Monday, trading just below the $94,000 mark during New York hours. Ether followed with modest gains. The advance unfolded alongside rising prices for gold, silver and U.S. equities as markets absorbed geopolitical developments tied to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. From a market-structure perspective, the synchronised reaction across asset classes points to renewed risk tolerance rather than defensive capital flows.
A notable technical signal accompanied the move. Bitcoin climbed above its 50-day moving average for the first time since the sharp sell-off earlier in October. While such signals are often framed as bullish confirmation, YourDailyAnalysis views the development more conservatively: it suggests a pause in downside momentum rather than the start of a new trend. Year-to-date gains remain limited, underscoring that bitcoin continues to lag traditional inflation hedges.
Speculation around Venezuela briefly entered market narratives, with renewed discussion about potential state-linked bitcoin reserves used as sanctions workarounds. Options desks cautioned against drawing firm conclusions, given the lack of verifiable evidence. Still, as YourDailyAnalysis notes, even unconfirmed narratives can influence positioning if they reinforce the idea of sovereign accumulation rather than forced selling.
Crucially, geopolitical tension did not trigger a risk-off response. U.S. equities advanced, led by technology shares, while precious metals extended gains. This matters for bitcoin’s positioning. The asset continues to oscillate between behaving as a macro hedge and trading as a high-beta risk instrument. Recent correlations suggest the latter remains dominant, particularly after bitcoin’s sharp underperformance during the fourth quarter.
Market participation remains selective. Trading desks report that recent price action has been driven primarily by crypto-native firms and directional traders, while miners, family offices and long-term holders have largely refrained from selling. YourDailyAnalysis interprets this dynamic as stabilisation rather than renewed speculative excess.
Flows offer cautious confirmation. Early January saw a noticeable pickup in inflows to U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, marking the strongest activity in nearly two months. At the same time, funding rates for perpetual futures have moved higher, reflecting increased willingness to hold leveraged long positions – though still well below historically overheated levels. Despite these improvements, bitcoin remains range-bound. The asset finished 2025 with a decline of roughly 6.5%, underperforming broader risk markets despite a relatively supportive regulatory backdrop in the United States. As YourDailyAnalysis has argued, policy tailwinds alone are insufficient without sustained liquidity expansion.
Looking ahead, the market’s focus is clear. A sustained break above $94,000 could invite momentum-driven participation, while failure to hold current levels would shift attention back toward support near $88,000. The near-term outlook hinges less on headlines and more on whether incremental inflows can translate into durable trend formation. The takeaway is measured. Bitcoin’s recent advance signals improving sentiment and technical repair, not regime change. For investors, the current phase is best viewed as a test of stability rather than confirmation of a new cycle – a distinction that remains central to the framework at Your Daily Analysis.
