Bitcoin fell roughly 2% on Monday, approaching the $66,000 level after touching a three-week low amid broader market weakness tied to renewed global trade uncertainty. While the price move may appear modest in isolation, YourDailyAnalysis views the decline as part of a wider macro-driven risk recalibration rather than a purely crypto-specific event.
The trigger was a sharp shift in U.S. trade policy. After the Supreme Court moved to overturn certain tariffs introduced by President Trump, the administration announced a new global tariff initially set at 10% and later raised to 15%. Markets tend to react more aggressively to policy volatility than to policy levels themselves. Abrupt changes in trade architecture increase uncertainty around supply chains, inflation expectations, and corporate earnings. In such environments, high-beta assets – including cryptocurrencies – are typically among the first to experience outflows.
Bitcoin is now down approximately 24% year-to-date and remains nearly 47% below its October all-time high. The token appears on track for a fifth consecutive monthly decline. Sequential monthly losses often alter investor psychology: rebounds are increasingly treated as opportunities to reduce exposure rather than accumulate. According to the structural assessment presented in YourDailyAnalysis, extended drawdown phases require either a decisive liquidity catalyst or a new structural demand driver to reverse sentiment sustainably.
Questions about Bitcoin’s role as a store of value have resurfaced. In stress environments, the asset has once again traded in correlation with equities rather than as a hedge. This does not necessarily invalidate the long-term “digital gold” thesis, but it highlights a mismatch of time horizons. Over short and medium terms, Bitcoin behaves primarily as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset. When dollar strength and macro uncertainty rise simultaneously, defensive capital flows toward cash rather than decentralized alternatives.
Importantly, current conditions differ from the systemic crypto credit crisis of 2022. That cycle was characterized by cascading insolvencies, forced liquidations, and widespread counterparty failures that amplified downward pressure. Today’s environment appears more macro-driven than credit-driven. While isolated cases such as the suspension of operations by mid-sized broker BlockFills have raised concerns, there is no broad evidence of interconnected balance sheet collapses. As our analysts assess in YourDailyAnalysis, the absence of a widespread leverage unwind reduces the probability of a rapid 70%-plus drawdown scenario similar to prior crypto winters.
Nevertheless, downside risk remains. Even optimistic analysts acknowledge that Bitcoin could test the $50,000 level before stabilizing. Such levels would likely represent a psychological stress point where weaker holders capitulate and longer-term allocators reassess positioning. The critical variable is not simply price, but whether liquidity conditions deteriorate in parallel.
Institutional forecasts have already adjusted. Standard Chartered recently lowered its year-end target from $150,000 to $100,000, reflecting a reassessment of monetary policy expectations and risk appetite. Markets currently anticipate limited additional rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the near term. Tighter financial conditions tend to compress speculative positioning, particularly in ETF-linked products. As highlighted in YourDailyAnalysis, ETF flows now function as a real-time barometer of conviction; in uncertain environments, these vehicles can accelerate outflows rather than stabilize markets.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s trajectory will likely hinge on two macro variables: clarity in global trade policy and the direction of U.S. monetary conditions. A stabilization of tariff policy and renewed expectations of rate accommodation could restore risk appetite. Conversely, prolonged uncertainty combined with steady or higher real yields may sustain defensive positioning.
In conclusion, the current drawdown reflects macro uncertainty and liquidity repricing more than structural failure within the crypto ecosystem. As Your Daily Analysis concludes, the defining question of this cycle is not whether volatility persists, but whether systemic leverage stress emerges. Absent a credit cascade, the downturn may prove shallower than 2022 – yet still prolonged if macro headwinds remain unresolved.
