Equity inflows surge, but fear of overvaluation still hangs over markets

Gillian Tett

The latest global fund-flow data points to a cautious but deliberate reallocation of capital back into risk assets, as investors reassess the balance between easing monetary conditions and persistent valuation concerns. In the reading of YourDailyAnalysis, the flows seen in the week to December 10 reflect positioning around policy expectations rather than renewed confidence in equity fundamentals.

Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, global equity funds absorbed $12.9 billion in net inflows – the strongest weekly figure in more than a month. The timing suggests that investors were preparing for a rate cut while remaining mindful of signals that further easing may be limited. The Fed’s subsequent quarter-point reduction, accompanied by guidance highlighting still-elevated inflation and policy uncertainty, reinforced that view rather than dispelled it.

Regional allocation patterns offer additional insight. Europe emerged as the primary destination for equity inflows, attracting $6.4 billion, effectively sustaining the pace of the prior week. From the perspective of YourDailyAnalysis, this preference reflects a perception that European equities offer comparatively more balanced valuations at a point when U.S. markets remain dominated by high-multiple technology stocks and AI-driven capital intensity.

Flows into U.S. and Asian equity funds were positive but more restrained, totaling $3.3 billion and $1.3 billion, respectively. The more telling signal came from sector-level allocations. Investors directed $2.13 billion into sector funds – the strongest weekly inflow since mid-November – with metals and mining, utilities and industrials leading purchases. This pattern suggests selective exposure to real assets, infrastructure and defensive cash-flow profiles rather than aggressive growth positioning.

At the same time, liquidity preferences shifted noticeably. Money market funds saw $12.99 billion in net outflows following an unusually large inflow the previous week. Within YourDailyAnalysis, this reversal is interpreted as a partial redeployment of parked cash rather than a wholesale abandonment of defensive positioning, especially given ongoing bond demand.

Global bond funds continued to attract capital for a 34th consecutive week, drawing $8.23 billion. Short-duration bond funds accounted for roughly $2 billion, extending a six-week buying streak, while euro-denominated bond funds added $1.9 billion. The emphasis on shorter maturities underscores ongoing caution around the longer-term rate trajectory despite recent easing.

Precious metals also remained in favor. Funds focused on gold and related assets recorded $1.9 billion in inflows, marking a fifth straight week of demand as investors maintained hedges against macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

Emerging markets offered a mixed but constructive picture. Equity funds attracted $2.78 billion, extending a seven-week inflow streak, while bond funds saw a modest $68 million gain. The divergence points to selective optimism on growth exposure rather than broad confidence in emerging-market debt.

Taken together, the data suggests a market navigating a narrow corridor between opportunity and restraint. As assessed by Your Daily Analysis, investors are gradually rotating capital out of cash and into equities, but the composition of flows – favoring Europe, defensive sectors, short-duration bonds and precious metals – indicates that risk appetite remains conditional rather than fully restored.

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